Page 216 - Rassegna 2021-3

OSSERVATORIO INTERNAZIONALE

During the period of the rather stormy departure of the Trump admini-
stration from power and the Biden administration’s taking of office, the
European Union concluded a comprehensive agreement on investment with
China in the hope that it would make it easier access to the Chinese investment
market. Washington was not delighted. The agreement has not been ratified by
either side yet for various reasons, among others due to the Chinese sanctions
(travel ban) against members of the European Parliament who were in favour
of sanctions due to China’s dismal human rights record.
Among the sources of power to which great powers rely a supporting
environment and as many followers as possible should be there. It is hard to
imagine a state rising among the world’s leading powers without being followed
by quite a few others, including influential states. There can be various reasons,
including the standing and acceptance of the line taken why a state is being fol-
lowed. This may be the case when states want to reduce their security deficit by
relying on a great power and thus strengthen their security (this is called ban-
dwagoning)17, when they intend to gain economic benefits or when they want
to demonstrate their affiliation and thus increase their influence. Of course,
there is also the case when one state simply wants to get a “clean slate” by
belonging to a group gaining recognition for its membership and then be free
to shape its policy, even in difference from the group (international organiza-
tion), if not to the opposite of its line. Follow-up behavior is based on a ratio-
nal decision on the part of the smaller player and also from a power that bene-
fits from a wide range of followers. The leading power does not have to force
the smaller state, as it is enough that the latter recognize the benefits of being
a follower. Of course, each leading power has its own way to lead and influence
based on its civilizational foundations that the various states that follow may
find attractive to varying degrees. It is now clear that both the United States lea-
dership on a value-based identity declared for many decades, and China’s newer
‘value-neutral’, sovereignty-maximizing approach attracts followers alike.
Where the bipolar international order is not of a Cold War nature, this
may lead many states to try find a place to build good relations with various
great powers and benefit from belonging to an international organization at the
same time. There are states that link their Eastern policy with membership of
Western organizations (such as countries like Hungary or more recently
Montenegro), while others combine their aspiration to join the European
Union with opening up to the East (such as Serbia). China (and Russia) has now
benefited on several occasions from the fact that the EU was not able to take
(17) WALT, Stephen, The Origins Of Alliances. Ithaca-London, 1987. pp. 147-180.

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