Page 54 - Supplemento 2-2016 (ENG)

Francesco Bosello

Interestingly enough, even if we were able to meet the 2°C target, we yet can-
not exclude the probability of adverse effects, especially catastrophic events
(which we still rate at about 5%): this is something we should keep in mind.

One more insight: given that there is a direct relationship between tempe-
rature increase, concentration of CO2 levels and greenhouse gases in the atmo-
sphere, emission of greenhouse gases and the use of fossil fuels, if we wish to
reach the 2°C target, we should limit fossil fuel burning to a quarter of the exi-
sting reserves. Clearly, this a huge challenge.

With regards to the impacts of climate change, what also matters is the
location where they occur. One example would be the impact on agriculture:
for instance the impact on crop production in tropical regions (typically in
developing countries) would be more severe than on temperate regions, where
instead the impact would be more or less positive or slightly negative.
Considering that food production in Europe accounts to less than 3% of the
GDP, whereas generally speaking in Africa it can account for around 40% of a
country’s GDP, we understand how climate change has a crucially adverse
impact on a society to produce wealth. Therefore, there are strong adverse equi-
ty implications of climate change.

A second example would be the impact on sea-level rise. We have many
areas in Europe which could be negatively affected by sea-level rise, including
Venice where I am originally from. But in developing countries in particular, a
number of megacities are located by river deltas, close to coasts. Again, sea-
level rise and climate change are much more of a concern for these countries
than for developed countries.

A third example is obviously the impact on health. A recent study from
the WHO confirms the threat of additional mortality and morbidity as a disen-
tangled effect induced by climate change. An interesting fact is that, according
to the report’s data, high-income countries have a zero histogram, meaning
there is no adverse impact or only negligible adverse impact on health, except
for the impact of heatwaves which could occur everywhere.

Focusing on economic aspects, we may look at less concerning scena-
rios of climate change, consistent with achieving the Paris agreement targets,
i.e. scenarios where temperature is between 1°C and 2.5°C. In this scenario,

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