Page 35 - Supplemento 2-2016 (ENG)

Tackling Environmental Crime throUgh standardized Methodologies

Forest and Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities

René Castro Salazar
Assistant Director-General for FAO Forestry Department

Why are we concerned about climate change, when we have other pro-
blems, like immigration and terrorism? Over the past twenty years, scientists have
been alerting us that, unless we stop emitting CO2, the planet’s temperature will
rise to 4 or 5°C above the average. Only if we manage to reduce emissions, we
will raise temperature to 2°C: 2°C will represent a big economic problem; 4 or
5°C would mean collapse, hard for human beings to survive. That is why we are
talking about climate change. We are following exactly the wrong path. Scientists
have told us exactly what not to do and we are doing it anyway: fossil fuel con-
sumption is increasing, forest fires are increasing, human consumption and waste
is increasing. Hence, we are following very much the path to the collapse scenario,
with 3.2 to 5.4°C of average global warming. Why is this important?

According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Institution of
the US, we are reaching the 400 parts per million threshold. We have towers on
the canopy of dry forests and were measuring how forests inhale CO2 and then
exhale oxygen and the trend is always the same: we are reaching the level that the
atmosphere cannot absorb any more. Not surprisingly for the climate deniers,
there are some “green” countries that may be net gainers and gain more than
others, which will be total net losers within that process. For example, I am from
Costa Rica and in Central America we will become net importers of rice, beans
and corn. For Latin America as a whole, we will be losing $50 billion in agricultural
exports per year and most of Latin America and Caribbean will be net losers.

Can we do anything to stop and reverse this? Yes, we can. For example, if we
manage the land better, we could reduce emissions by a good amount; if we manage
agriculture, water, waste, fertilizers etc. better, we will reduce emissions. Still, if we
manage to do all that, we will still be emitting 4.7 tons per capita every year and we will
still need to work on electricity, on transportation, on industry and on energy efficiency.
Scientists are telling us that, in order to save ourselves, we need to limit emissions to
two tons per capita by 2050 and to one ton per capita by 2100. But there is hope. 175

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